Health / NYC
Are rats still a problem?
We dive into the sewers of the problem. Or better said, of the NYC Open Data, to see if it is getting better or worse.
Photomontage: Federico D. Teijeiro. Sources: Background image. Rat image: Louise Zergaeng Pomeroy.
Rats and New York City (NYC) fell in love at first sight a long time ago. And despite
time, the romance continues. The city began trying to get rid of rats at least two centuries ago. Since
then, mayors tried all sorts of measures, and each and every one of them failed. The latest were forcing New
Yorkers to take out the garbage a few hours later and hiring
a ‘rat czar’ to oversee efforts to get rid of the rodents.
This is a public health problem. Rats, carry pathogens that cause serious illnesses
in humans, especially children, including bacteria that cause food poisoning, such as Salmonella and
Escherichia coli, as well as pathogens that cause severe fevers and viruses. In some cases, these are fatal.
In addition, rats carry fleas, lice and mites that also cause serious diseases in humans, and increased
exposure to rodent hair, droppings and urine can increase the risk of allergies and asthma. Diseases are
spread when humans or their pets come into contact with rat saliva, urine or feces.
Rats are gross, but they can also be dangerous. In New York City, cases of leptospirosis—a bacterial infection that can lead to kidney and liver failure and that is predominantly transmitted in rat urine—are on the rise. In 2021, 14 New Yorkers were diagnosed with the disease and one died of it—far more cases than in any previous year. In November, researchers discovered several COVID-19 variants in sewer rats, opening up a whole new range of concerns. Studies have found that people living near infestations are more likely to report feeling anxious or depressed.
But, what is the current situation? Are there signs that the problem is getting
better or worse? Are there more or less rats in NYC? How does it impact the lives of New Yorkers? We tried
to answer these and other questions through public data from NYC.
NYC 311 calls about rodents sights.
We analyzed the data of calls to 311 for rodent complaints. This database is updated
daily. For this article, we filtered by rats and rodents and downloaded the dataset on June 25, 2023, at the
end of the day. We did not discriminate between rats and rodents, because there is no certainty that a small
rat can be considered a rodent. In the absence of clarification, we decided not to discriminate between rats
and rodents.
Rodents complaints by NYC boroughs (2010-June 25, 2023)
Each square represents 2,000 calls to 311.
If we take from 2010, when the database was created, to June 25, 2023, historically Brooklyn is the borough that made the most claims. In general, claims increased year over year, but not significantly. This changed in 2013. From this point on, there was a drastic increase in complaints about rats. However, there was a marked decrease in 2020 as a result of the measures taken by the city due to the Coronavirus Pandemic, which meant fewer people on the streets, less shops and offices open, no tourists and less garbage. However, in 2021, complaints skyrocketed and broke record. The last year, the same thing happened: 311 calls reached an historic maximum.
Let's look at it in detail. In 2020, 16,262 rodent complaints were made to 311. The following year, they increased by 53.79 percent and reached an all-time record (25,010). Last year, again increased by 5.95 percent and ranked as the year with the most complaints (26,500). From 2010 to 2022, rat sightings grew 151.58 percent.
If we consider only the population of each borough, Manhattan narrows the gap with Brooklyn. Only if we take into account complaints according to population density per square mile we noticed a change. In this case, Manhattan is in first place by a wide margin over Brooklyn. It is followed by Bronx, Queens and, finally, Staten Island.
When we explored the effect of weather on NYC 311 complaints about rodents, we found a correlation between temperature and rat complaints. we dig into the data for each year, more precisely by month, and we found that NYC citizens complain more during certain periods.
In the first 175 days of 2023, 11,927 complaints were filed. Some districts faced increased rodent sightings between January and May 2023, compared to the same period last year. For example, in Astoria, Queens, rat reports nearly doubled from 95 sightings to 181 complaints. But in certain areas, like Central Harlem and the Upper West Side, in Manhattan, with some of the highest numbers of rat sightings, reported complaints are down, according to the 311 data.
The decline in complaints in May was driven by residents in Manhattan, Bronx. Meanwhile, Staten Island and Queens residents had more rat reports compared to the same month of last year. Although the number of rodent complaints dropped, comparing the first five months of 2023 versus 2022, it's too early to draw conclusions: rat complaints typically peak in the summer months, as the data show. The question was not why 2023 is lower, but why 2022 was higher; May's rat sighting complaints more closely resemble the figures for the same month in 2021.
Where are complaints coming from?
The graph below shows the number of rodent complaints (sightings) by type of location in NYC.
The 3+ family apartments reported the most sightings followed by 1–2 family dwelling. Generally, these types of buildings tend to be found in high-density urban areas where food and shelter for rodents are plentiful. Larger buildings also have more waste, which can attract rats. Consequently, the rat population in these areas is likely to be higher. However, more people means more eyes and can translate into a greater probability of sightings.
Indeed, Broadway, Eastern Parkway and Grand Concourse are the streets with the most rodent complaints since 2010. Now let's see which residential streets have the most rodent sightings.
However, The following residential areas are also zones of many rodent sightings:
- Park Terrace West between Broadway and Seaman avenues.
- West 165th to 168th streets between Fort Washington Ave. and Riverside Dr.
- West 165th to 168th streets between Fort Washington Ave. and Riverside Dr.
- West 173rd to 176th streets between Broadway and Fort Washington Ave.
- West 186-189th streets between Overlook Terrace and Fort Washington Ave.
- West 196th Street plus Ellwood Street between Nagle and Broadway avenues.
Washington Heights and Inwood residents must be on alert too: the NYC Open Data shows neighborhood parks, including Fort Tryon Park, J. Hood Wright Park, and Highbridge Park, are very much hot spots for rodents.
But single-family homes are not the only places that have called 311 with rodent sightings. Commercial buildings also suffer from the presence of these animals.
On the other hand, there are zones of uptown that are surprisingly free of rats or had no rodent sightings. This area includes a stretch of avenues between West 164th Street and West 168th Street, and multiple avenues near the Bronx between West 187th Street and West 191st Street.
Rodent inspections.
We did not find a correlation between rodent sightings and complaints and inspections. As we evidenced, Brooklyn is the borough that made the most complaints, but it is not the location where the most inspections were conducted.
Since the database was created, 2,407,822 inspections were conducted in New York City. Evidence of rodent activity was found in only 40 percent of the cases. However, in 2021 and 2022, sightings have risen to all-time historic records.
Does the increase in 311 calls for rodent complaints mean more rats?
Between 2016 and 2019 and from 2021, data show that both. Also, the data show that since 2014 there’s been an increase in clean inspections (initial inspections that pass), but a larger increase in those finding active rat signs. In the 59,97 percent of the cases they did not find rodent activity.
How many rats are in New York City?
There are an estimated 2 million (+/- 150K) rats living in New York City. Yes, there are rats running around in subways, alleys, restaurants, parks and homes. This information comes from a study published in the scientific journal 'Significance'. This analyzed NYC’s rat problem through reported rat sightings in different city boroughs. They found that 20% of neighborhoods account for 50% of rat sightings, with areas such as Manhattan’s Upper West Side and Brooklyn’s Bushwick having particularly high figures.
We cross-referenced NYC public information about rodent sightings and NYC public inspections with the goal of counting unique cases during 2022. According to this analysis, there are currently about 2.5 million rats.
The rat problem over time. Is it getting better or worse?
If we look at the rodent sightings data from 2010, 2016 and 2022 we observe that it seems that last year there were fewer rat sightings than in the others. But no. The temperature on the rats heat map has turned up citywide, the hottest spots remain largely consistent.
NYC Open Data. Rat sightings from 2010.
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NYC Open Data. Rat sightings from 2016.
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NYC Open Data. Rat sightings from 2022.
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Rats are and will be a problem.
The transformation from urban menace to public enemy took place in the 19th century. The first rat attack I could find on record took place in 1860, when a baby was eaten in Bellevue Hospital. Her mother, an Irish serving girl, gave birth unattended in the night, and the child may already have been dead; the mother remembered “a cat or rat on the bed, but could not tell which.” The women’s wing of the hospital, a reporter for The New York Times explained, was built on land reclaimed from the marshes of the East River, on top of rock and rubbish and sewers, “and by these sewers the vile, gregarious, amphibious and nomade vermin, swimming in crowds from place to place, have been induced to stop.” In the female wards, the reporter wrote, “the rats in the night-time run about in swarms … This sounds like fiction, but we are assured that it is true. Myriads swarm at the water side after nightfall, crawl through the sewers and enter the houses. In a bath-tub, last Monday night, forty rats were caught.” Since then, the rat population has been growing continuously.
Rat's purpose on this planet is to procreate; they are in the business of creating more rats. They breed so much because they die so fast. Rats do not hibernate, but they do slow down their reproductive cycles. Cold, frozen streets have fewer people, and less food.
Global warming isn’t helping. This winter, New York City broke the record for the most days without a snowfall. This January was the second warmest on record. A degree or two of difference may not sound like much, but it goes back to food and opportunities to forage. Over the past half century, changes in climate and the way New Yorkers dispose of their trash have given the rat population an unprecedented opportunity to boom, an increase unabated by man and undeterred by politics.
So where does this leave us? The rat problem keeps getting bigger y the population has not only grown exponentially; it has also spread. Meanwhile, efforts to solve the problem are going down the drain. The rats are hungry and there is a big apple for them.